Analytics Expert Explains Why He Would Bet On Cardinals
National outlets are up to their old tricks, regularly ranking the Cardinals in the bottom half of the NFL as the season approaches.
But the advanced stats community is decidedly higher on the team in the desert, and respected analytics guru Aaron Schatz is among the believers.
Schatz’s FTN Almanac recently came out with its annual predictions for 2025, and the Cardinals rank 10th in the league with 9.2 projected wins, ahead of the Bengals, Rams and Packers, among others.
“We thought they were better than their record last year, and they added a good amount of defensive talent,” Schatz told me over the phone this week. “Their defense comes out as a top-10 projected defense. Overall, they come out as wild card contenders.”
We've lowered the price on the FTN Football Almanac 2025! The season is just around the corner but there's still time to read the best, most accurate season preview filled with advanced stats, film study, and humor.
Price also lowered $10 on Amazon.https://t.co/uCJVNhdCU7 pic.twitter.com/Wy9kesucMY
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) August 26, 2025
The defense is projected to be the seventh-best in the NFL, a huge elevation from the sad-sack group coach Jonathan Gannon took over two years ago.
The defensive front added Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson, Calais Campbell and Walt Nolen this offseason, while Budda Baker has found himself a standout running mate in the secondary.
“Garrett Williams is the sneaky (star),” said Schatz, who rated Williams a top-10 cornerback last season. “People don’t realize how well he played last year.”
If the defense delivers, the Cardinals would only need a serviceable offense to be a playoff team. Arizona finished No. 11 in offensive efficiency last season and is projected to finish No. 17 in 2025.
Arizona is given a 50.7% chance to make the playoffs, and Schatz believes gambling on the Cardinals is “good value” because betting sites list them as underdogs to qualify for the postseason.
“(Quarterback Kyler) Murray would really have to take a leap for them to become Super Bowl contenders, but they absolutely have playoff potential,” Schatz said.
Schatz Talks Kyler Murray
Murray made noticeable progress in his second year within Drew Petzing’s offense, finishing No. 12 in the league in passing DVOA, with top-5 rushing value to boot – squarely positing him as a top-10 quarterback in 2024.
However, a strong body of work was accompanied by shortcomings, particularly in high-leverage situations. Murray was 19th in DVOA in the fourth quarter/overtime and 30th in third-and-long.
Schatz believes the poor numbers in crucial situations are mostly statistical noise, but Murray hasn’t been great in those areas as a pro.
“I do think high-leverage situations are usually a small sample size, but there’s no question some guys are better in high-leverage situations over time,” Schatz said. “(Patrick) Mahomes being the best example of that.”
Even though they are stylistically very different, Schatz compares Murray’s standing to that of Derek Carr in his prime.
“So I think what you kind of have with Murray is, he’s good,” Schatz said. “He’s in that place that no one wants to be in, where he’s not an elite quarterback but he’s not bad. So you can’t replace him.
“He’s more exciting than Derek Carr, but it’s almost the same thing. Derek Carr was good, but he wasn’t great, so there was always this feeling of: Can we compete for a Super Bowl without one of the quarterbacks in the top-8, with a guy that’s slightly above average? Murray may have hit that same point of being slightly above average, just in a more exciting way.”
When asked about Murray’s impressive highs, Schatz said it does allow for the belief that he can string it all together.
“The streakiness does give you hope he can go on a streak,” Schatz said.
Schatz on Marvin Harrison
The Cardinals made very few changes offensively, and beyond further ascension from Murray, Schatz said the biggest improvement would come from a second-year leap from Marvin Harrison, Jr.
Schatz and chapter author Bryan Knowles were not fans of the way Harrison was deployed as a rookie, running copious vertical routes to open the underneath area for Trey McBride.
“They can use Harrison better, which would make the offense better,” Schatz said.
The advantage of finding a bona fide No. 1 receiver is that the Cardinals can scheme ways to get Harrison the ball, making it a real game-changer shall it come to fruition.
“We talk sometimes about the weak link system,” Schatz said. “Offensive line is a weak link system, because you’re really only as good as your worst offensive lineman. (Defenses) can attack that weakness.
“Wide receiver is not really like that. You can hide your bad wide receiver three if you’ve got a stud wide receiver one. Wide receiver is the strong link system, so if Harrison can break out and have a really great season, that’s really good (news for the Cardinals).”
Kyle Odegard has been a professional journalist for two decades, with four years of experience in the sports betting industry. He was a beat writer for the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals from 2013-2021 and previously covered MLB, NFL, NBA, college football and more for the East Valley Tribune newspaper in Tempe, Arizona. Kyle has broken multiple national stories about the Arizona Cardinals and his work has been referenced by numerous publications, including Sports Illustrated, the Daily Mail, the New York Post, Yahoo!, FOX News, MSN and Pro Football Talk.