Jaguars Projected To Win AFC South By Analytics Expert
The Jaguars are in for a huge bounceback season, according to a respected analytics guru.
Aaron Schatz’s FTN Almanac came out recently, and arguably the biggest surprise among its projections is Jacksonville winning the AFC South.
Even though the Jaguars went 4-13 last season and are ushering in new head coach Liam Coen, the FTN Almanac predicts nine wins and the divisional title for Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are projected to have the No. 12 defense and No. 19 offense in the NFL. Jacksonville has a 54.7% chance of making the playoffs this season, per FTN’s algorithm.
“That (projection) was a little bit of a surprise,” Schatz told Gambling Industry News in an exclusive interview. “The surprise was how well it projected their defense. I think we are probably too low on their offense and too high on their defense. But the overall package makes sense.
“And certainly if you believe in the idea that Liam Coen is a smart offensive mind. We all know Trevor Lawrence had one really, really good season, and that there is so much talent there. Someone should be able to unlock him, right? Especially with the two stud receivers in (Brian) Thomas and (Travis) Hunter.”
We've lowered the price on the FTN Football Almanac 2025! The season is just around the corner but there's still time to read the best, most accurate season preview filled with advanced stats, film study, and humor.
Price also lowered $10 on Amazon.https://t.co/uCJVNhdCU7 pic.twitter.com/Wy9kesucMY
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) August 26, 2025
The Texans are listed as the favorites to win the division by betting sites, while Jacksonville is second at +300 odds. But Schatz doubles down on his computer model’s prediction.
“I think the Jaguars are slightly ahead of Houston,” Schatz said. “I think Houston is the better team, but that schedule difference is significant.”
Schatz is talking about the three games against different opponents, based on the team’s divisional finish last year. The Texans, the reigning AFC South champs, face the Bills, Ravens and Buccaneers, while the Jags comparatively get the Panthers, Jets and Bengals.
“We project (Jacksonville) to be a slightly below average team, but the schedule difference between them and Houston when it comes to games outside the division is huge,” Schatz said.
The Jaguars have the fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL, according to FTN.
Positive Regression Expected For the Defense
The Jaguars finished 31st in defensive efficiency last season, which contributed greatly to the overall struggles.
But the projection model foresees a major bounceback, projecting Jacksonville jump 19 spots in 2025. Schatz said a big reason is positive regression after the team was very unlucky in a critical category a season ago.
“They were last in the league last year in takeaways per drive, and that’s the strongest thing that regresses to the mean on defense,” Schatz said. “So it’s very unlikely Jacksonville is that low again on takeaways.”
Schatz said the addition of two-way wunderkind Travis Hunter on each side of the ball is also key. It’s hard to quantify exactly what he will be able to do at the NFL level, but the potential is there for major impact.
“I think it’s the best question in the league all year,” Schatz said. “I have no idea how to project Travis Hunter. He could be a useful part on defense and an above average wide receiver. That’s impressive.”
Kyle Odegard has been a professional journalist for two decades, with four years of experience in the sports betting industry. He was a beat writer for the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals from 2013-2021 and previously covered MLB, NFL, NBA, college football and more for the East Valley Tribune newspaper in Tempe, Arizona. Kyle has broken multiple national stories about the Arizona Cardinals and his work has been referenced by numerous publications, including Sports Illustrated, the Daily Mail, the New York Post, Yahoo!, FOX News, MSN and Pro Football Talk.