Investigations have began into suspicious betting patterns surrounding the Nobel peace prize.
Wagers for Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado spiked on the Polymarket betting platform just hours before she was awarded the prize.
Norwegian officials who oversee the Nobel peace prize are looking into the possibility of a rare leak from the secretive committee that awards it.
The five-person committee, made up of a human rights advocate, foreign policy expert and three former ministers, all from Norway – made its final decision on Monday and informed Machado of the decision minutes before it was announced on Friday.
The head of the Nobel Institute, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told Bloomberg: “It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.”
Machado was handed the prize for her democratic activism in Venezuela, marking the first winner from her nation.
Until the day of the ceremony, Yulia Navalnaya, the economist and widow of former Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, was the clear favourite on Polymarket.
Polymarket has emerged as one of the most popular platforms to wager on political events in recent years and shortly after midnight Norwegian time on Thursday, Machado’s odds were 3.75% on the site – behind both Navalnaya and Donald Trump.
Less than two hours later however, her chances had surged to 72.8%. In one case, a player won more than $65,000 on Machado and another winner used a profile that was created on the same day the bet was placed according to Norwegian outlet Finansavisen.
Earlier this year Polymarket made a return to the US market after striking a $112 million deal with derivatives exchange QCEX.
The platform correctly predicted a high likelihood that Trump would win the 2024 election, out of line with most mainstream polls.
In major prediction markets, traders buy ‘yes’ or ‘no’ shares tracking the outcome of events and the amount of buying and selling of those instruments determines the implied probability.
Much like a stock market, Polymarket reflects the behaviour of traders and not the calculations of a bookmaker.
Joe Lyons is a betting industry writer for GamblingIndustryNews with years of experience on reputable gambling websites. Joe specialises in long form content in the world of sports betting and gambling. Joe is recognised as an expert in sports fields such as horse racing, soccer, NFL and NBA.
