2024 U.S Election Betting – Trump Favorite To Win

by Jenny Tang - Friday, June 17th, 2022 9:04

election betting odds

Gamblers worldwide are confident that Donald Trump will retake the white-house in November 2024 according to money-flow on betting exchanges. Trump is also the favorite with many traditional bookmakers to retake the White House in November 2024.

Money-Flow on betting exchanges implies Trump wins 40% of the time

Studies have shown that in predicting election outcomes political betting markets (on betting exchanges) outperform polls.

Election-odds.com, a website which tracks historical money-flow (bets) in political markets worldwide (from exchanges like Betfair, PredictIt.org, FTX, Smarket.com & more) to help predict election winners currently reports that Donald Trump has a 40% implied probability of winning the 2024 U.S presidential election.

DeSantis for President?

In Florida, incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis, a rising Republican star, is campaigning for reelection on an anti-woke “culture war” platform that has won him support from hard-line conservatives. Democrats accuse DeSantis of disregarding the needs of his constituents by utilizing the midterm elections as a dress rehearsal for his presidential candidacy in 2024.

Given the large number of unaffiliated voters, DeSantis’ tactic is dangerous. But, given Trump’s current weakness, could victory push him closer to the White House? DeSantis is currently second favorite at +425 / 5.25 (Bovada) to become the next POTUS.

Trump – a safe bet?

Since losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden, Trump has been the safe bet for the Republican presidential nominee. Are the varied results with endorsements in the midterm primaries, however, an indication that Trump’s previously impregnable grip on the Republican Party is slipping?

Donald Trump is rumored to be exploring a presidential run on July 4th, according to reports. If this is accurate, it may prevent Ron DeSantis and a growing field of potential Republican presidential contenders from running ahead of the former president. And, as the January 6 committee nears a ruling, a presidential bid may divert focus away from Trump’s existing legal problems.

“What makes you think he wouldn’t run?” “He’s in so much danger, legally, criminally, and civilly,” Mary Trump, his niece, continued.

Political pundits are keeping a close eye on Ron DeSantis’ refusal to confirm or deny a presidential run. However, there is little doubt that the Florida Governor’s appeal extends beyond the state’s borders, as seen by his PAC’s $36.7 million in fundraising, $17 million of which came from out-of-state donors.

“To many Republicans, DeSantis is Florida’s incarnation of Donald Trump, his successor, his alter ego, his clone,” said Darryl Paulson of the University of South Florida, a specialist in Florida and Southern politics and political elections.

Given the percentage of unaffiliated voters, DeSantis’ tactic is hazardous, but given Trump’s current weakness, it might bring him to Washington.

Political bettors will be watching to see if DeSantis’ hard-line approach can get him closer to a presidential run in this midterm year.

US Presidential Election Betting Odds

US Presidential Election Winner Odds
Candidate Odds
Donald Trump Sr. +240
Ron DeSantis +425
Joe Biden +525
Kamala Harris +900
Mike Pence +2500
Nikki Haley +2500
Pete Buttigieg +2500
Michelle Obama +3300
Elizabeth Warren +4000
Hillary Clinton +4000
Mike Pompeo +5000
Kristi Noem +5000
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson +5000
Tucker Carlson +5000
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +6000
Josh Hawley +6600
Ted Cruz +6600
Mitt Romney +6600
Candace Owens +8000
Stacey Abrams +8000
Mark Cuban +8000
Tom Cotton +8000
Tim Scott +8000
Tulsi Gabbard +8000
Gavin Newsom +5000
Amy Klobuchar +10000
Donald Trump Jr. +10000
Beto O’Rourke +5000
Ivanka Trump +10000
Bernie Sanders +10000
Charlie Baker +10000
Jamie Dimon +10000
Lindsey Graham +10000
Dan Crenshaw +12500
Andrew Yang +12500
Tammy Duckworth +12500
Paul Ryan +12500
Michael Bloomberg +12500
Liz Cheney +12500
Cory Booker +10000
Andrew Cuomo +15000
Gretchen Whitmer +15000
John Kasich +15000
Greg Abbott +15000
Rand Paul +15000
Kayleigh McEnany +15000
Rick Scott +15000
Condoleezza Rice +20000
Kanye West +20000
George P. Bush +20000
Jared Kushner +20000
Val Demmings +20000
Joe Kennedy III +20000
David Portnoy +25000
The Iron Sheik +500000

(Politics Odds via Bovada)

Jenny Tang

Global iGaming Analyst based in New York City.