BetMGM has downgraded its annual financial outlook for the second time in 2026 and no longer expects to hit its $500 million adjusted core profit target by 2027, citing mounting competition from prediction market platforms as the primary driver of the revision.
The joint venture between Entain and MGM Resorts now expects full-year net revenue to come in toward the lower end of its $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion guidance range, with adjusted core profit similarly tracking toward the bottom of the $300 million to $350 million band. Entain shares slipped marginally following the announcement.
On the $500 million target, BetMGM said it now considers it prudent to assume delivery will extend beyond 2027, pointing to a more competitive landscape and what it described as regulatory complexity stemming from the growth of prediction market platforms.
Prediction Markets Reshape the Competitive Calculus
Licensed sportsbook operators across the U.S. are contending with a new class of competitor in prediction market platforms such as Kalshi. FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics have responded by launching their own prediction market products, raising customer acquisition costs and threatening sports betting market share across the sector.
BetMGM has not entered the prediction market space, citing concerns that doing so could jeopardise its brick-and-mortar gaming licences in Nevada and other states. FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics all offer prediction market products.
CEO Adam Greenblatt acknowledged the tougher environment while maintaining that the underlying business remains sound. Executives emphasised that higher-value players have remained resilient, and the company reaffirmed its prioritisation of premium customers as a segment that has stayed robust despite the influx of new competition. Greenblatt characterised the current prediction market spending wave as unsustainable based on player-level unit economics, and framed the disruption as temporary rather than a long-term structural threat.
BetMGM is also positioning prediction markets as a potential regulatory liability, reiterating its alignment with state regulators and tribal partners. Greenblatt has suggested the question of prediction markets’ legal status may ultimately be resolved at the Supreme Court level. In the meantime, executives acknowledged that the rise of prediction markets may help accelerate online sports betting legalisation efforts in key states.
The company said it is refining its marketing strategy and reallocating capital toward higher-return segments, including iGaming and premium players, while assuming current competitive conditions persist. The company said it remains confident the $500 million target is achievable – the question, for now, is when.
Renata Kovacs has spent the better part of a decade following the regulatory shifts and licensing battles that define how gambling markets open, close, and evolve across Europe and beyond. She came up through the legal and compliance side of the industry before shifting her focus to journalism and analysis, giving her a perspective that sits closer to the operator room than the press box. Her coverage tends to cut through the noise and get straight to what a regulatory change actually means for the businesses and players involved.