Details from the first independent polling on California’s sports betting ballot measures have been released showing that both Proposition 26 and Proposition 27 heading towards defeat.
Both ballot measures have attracted over $500 million in funding
According to the polling data from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS), 53% of voters intend to vote no on Proposition 27 with only 27% intending to vote yes. Meanwhile, 42% of voters plan to vote no on Proposition 26 with only 31% intending to vote yes.
Passage of a ballot measure requires a minimum of 50% of voters approving the proposition. With only a month to go before the November 8th elections, both camps will need to gain significant ground to secure passage. Should both measures fail, Californians would need to wait at least two years before getting another opportunity to vote on legal sports betting in California.
In a press release outlining the polling data, IGS director Eric Schickler said:
“These results suggest that the sports wagering initiatives are floundering in the face of the opposition advertising campaigns. The lack of support among key demographic groups makes passage of each an uphill climb, at best.”
Kathy Fairbanks, spokesperson for the Yes on 26/No on 27 campaign, spoke to the local press saying:
“We are not surprised about the Prop 26 poll numbers. The deceptive ads by the out-of-state gambling corporations have thoroughly confused voters to the point where they are just saying no to it all. We have not done a single ad for Yes on 26, and instead have focused our resources on defeating Prop 27. Our polling shows that voters still strongly support Indian tribes and in-person tribal gaming.”
The sports betting initiatives have already attracted $500 million in funding, obliterating state records for ballot measure funding and is now considered one of the most expensive ballot contests in American politics.
ISG also asked voters about tribal groups that operate casinos with 53% of voters viewing the groups favorably. However, out-of-state sports betting operators didn’t fare quite so well with only 14% of polled voters having a favorable view of companies such as DraftKings and FanDuel. IGS surmises that this negative opinion is thanks in large part to the heavily publicized campaign by tribal groups.
The polling data gives a breakdown of support for the propositions by key demographics:
- Democrats: Prop 26 – 32% | Prop 27 – 26%
- Republicans: Prop 26 – 28% | Prop 27 – 25%
- Male: Prop 26 – 40% | Prop 27 – 35%
- Female: Prop 26 – 24% | Prop 27 – 19%
- Age 18-29: Prop 26 – 43% | Prop 27 – 44%
- Sports fans: Prop 26 – 42% | Prop 27 – 38%
- High exposure to ads: Prop 26 – 28% | Prop 27 – 23%
The Berkeley Institute held the poll online from September 22nd to 27th. 8,725 registered voters were polled in California, including 6,939 that are considered likely to vote in November. The Institute’s margin of error is 2.5%.
Image credit: GPA Photo Archive / CC BY-NC 2.0
An experienced iGaming commentator and analyst based in New York City - Jenny reports on regulation and gambling industry news and events.