Kyle Langford, a Republican candidate for governor in California, bet on himself to win the highest office in the state at Kalshi this weekend.
Langford posted a video on X of him placing the $100 bet, which will return $1330 if he is elected. The market rules do not specifically prohibit candidates from placing bets, but it could set a dangerous precedent.
Kalshi previously sent out an email to users back in October about political markets, stating, “Spoiler alert: if you’re running for office or counting the votes, you’re sitting this one out.”
Placing bets on themselves to win may not be so controversial, but it opens up the possibility of candidates backing themselves to lose, which could be more problematic.
Kalshi issued a statement on Monday over the bet, commenting, “We are aware of the recently publicized circumstance regarding a candidate trading on a market regarding their candidacy, and our compliance and surveillance teams are acting accordingly.”
Politics betting given all clear
Langford could yet see his bet voided, but the incident highlights the extent to which prediction markets have spread. Kalshi recently gained approval for political betting after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) withdrew a legal challenge.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour celebrated the withdrawal by posting on X, “Election markets are here to stay. Prediction markets have been banned, censored, limited and pushed out for decades. This win solidifies their right to exist and thrive.”
The CFTC had ordered the company to stop its presidential election market last year, but a judge in D.C. ruled in Kalshi’s favor and allowed the markets to be reactivated. Following the approval, Kalshi traded over $1 billion on the market, which accurately predicted Trump’s victory.
Trump paving the way for prediction markets
Donald Trump, Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor following his father’s victory, citing the market’s predictive value as the reason to get involved. He posted on X, “On Election night at Mar-a-Lago, while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used the prediction market Kalshi to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media.
“I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission. Today, I am proud to announce that I am joining Kalshi as a strategic advisor.”
After assuming office, Trump Sr. nominated Brian Quintenz, a Kalshi board member, to lead the CFTC. Quintenz has yet to be confirmed in the role, but acting chair Caroline Pham has shown more leniency towards Kalshi as it expands into sports prediction markets.
The ties between the Trump administration and Kalshi looked to be getting stronger when the company announced a partnership with Elon Musk’s AI company, xAI, but the announcement was premature and withdrawn hours later.
Musk’s social media platform X posted a denial of any deal, but did confirm interest in the prediction market space. The X account on the platform posted, “Recent speculation about xAI’s involvement in the prediction market space has been circulating. While we’re enthusiastic about the potential of this industry and engaged in various discussions, no formal partnerships have been confirmed to date. Stay tuned!”
Adam is an experienced writer with years of experience in the gambling industry. He has worked as a content writer and editor for five years on sites such as Oddschecker, CoinTelegraph and Gambling Industry News, bringing excellent knowledge of the world of sports betting and online gambling.
