Gibraltar has become the first licensing jurisdiction to publish a standalone regulatory framework for prediction markets, with the formal regulations appearing in the Gibraltar Gazette on Monday under the new Gibraltar Gambling Act 2025.
The Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry, led by Minister Nigel Feetham, released a 24-page regulatory document establishing prediction market activity as a distinct statutory category with its own authorisation requirements, operational standards, and supervisory framework. Two licences have already been granted ahead of the framework’s formal publication.
The framework adopts an activity-based and risk-based approach, addressing market integrity, participant protection, financial crime prevention, governance, operational resilience, and objective settlement. All event contracts must receive approval and certification from the Gambling Authority, and must be clear, capable of objective settlement, and not readily susceptible to manipulation. The authority retains discretion to restrict or prohibit contracts it deems contrary to the public interest, including those linked to criminal conduct, death, serious injury, terrorism, or armed conflict.
Speaking to iGB, Feetham said that the framework reflects engagement with industry professionals, prospective operators and investors over recent months, and demonstrates that innovation and robust regulatory standards can go hand in hand.
An independent supervisory panel has been established to oversee implementation. The first licence, issued to ADI Predictstreet, fell under the previous betting intermediary category before the new Act came into force. US-based WagerWire, which received approval in principle in June, is on track to become the second licence holder. WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger told iGB the California-based platform is targeting a B2B and B2C product launch by the NFL preseason and the start of international football in August.
A Framework for a Fragmented Global Landscape
Gibraltar’s move arrives as regulators worldwide remain sharply divided on how to classify prediction markets. In Europe, EU treatment of certain prediction market contracts as banned binary options under MiFID II has led multiple gambling regulators to block prominent operators outright. A coordinated enforcement action involving Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Spain was initiated in June. ESMA last week reaffirmed its position on binary-outcome contracts with fixed payouts that fall within its jurisdiction.
In the US, the question of whether prediction markets constitute gambling or financial activity remains actively contested between state attorneys general and federal regulators, with multiple bills introduced and ongoing litigation involving operators including Kalshi and Polymarket. State and tribal interests continue to press the argument that event contracts are gambling products subject to their jurisdiction.
Feetham acknowledged the absence of settled international consensus on how prediction markets should be characterised, framing Gibraltar’s framework as providing “Gibraltar’s framework therefore provides an additional regulatory option by establishing a dedicated regime.” Geiger went further, suggesting the framework would serve as a model globally, citing Gibraltar’s track record as a licensing standard-setter for remote gaming.
The independent supervisory panel’s practical guidance on approved contract types and market surveillance standards will be the next material development to watch as Gibraltar moves from framework publication to operational oversight.
Source: iGB via X
When he is not analysing the latest compliance updates or dissecting quarterly operator results, Florian follows Bundesliga football closely and maintains a healthy skepticism toward anyone claiming to have cracked a winning betting system. He brings a grounded, insider-aware perspective to his writing and is always more interested in the structural story behind the headline than the headline itself.