AGA: Prediction Markets Drain $1.2B from State Gaming Tax Coffers

The AGA says unregulated prediction market sports bets have siphoned over $1.2B in gaming tax revenue away from state-funded public services and communities.

by - Sunday, July 26th, 2026 5:26

Money flowing from state capitol between regulated gaming vault and unregulated prediction market void

The American Gaming Association has reported that states have now lost more than $1.2 billion in gaming tax revenue to sports bets placed through prediction markets operating outside state-regulated systems.

The AGA published the figure alongside an explicit framing of the fiscal consequence: revenue that would otherwise fund local communities, public services, and state budgetary priorities is instead flowing through channels that sit beyond the reach of state licensing and taxation frameworks.

White American Gaming Association logo with AGA monogram on a red and blue gradient background

from sports bets offered by “prediction markets” outside of the state-regulated system . That classification , paying state taxes, .

The dispute over how to classify these products – – has produced an increasingly crowded legal and legislative battleground. .

Close-up of a person using a sports betting app on a smartphone showing soccer and football match odds

, and the AGA has reported the figure. Congressional has , .

Industry Alignment Against Unregulated Operators

, expected of regulated operators. properly supervised at the federal level.

. .

Source: American Gaming Association via X

Florian Kessler

When he is not analysing the latest compliance updates or dissecting quarterly operator results, Florian follows Bundesliga football closely and maintains a healthy skepticism toward anyone claiming to have cracked a winning betting system. He brings a grounded, insider-aware perspective to his writing and is always more interested in the structural story behind the headline than the headline itself.